Polysilicon Prices Temporarily Stabilize, Silicon Metal Transactions Currently Weak [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM October 27 News:

Silicon Metal

Price

Silicon metal prices were mostly stable last Friday. SMM oxygen-blown #553 silicon in east China was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,500-9,700 yuan/mt. In the futures market, the silicon metal SI2511 contract closed at 8,570 yuan/mt at the end of Friday. Downstream silicon buyers mainly made purchases based on demand at low prices, and transaction prices for silicon powder orders were weak.

Production

As the dry season in Sichuan and Yunnan approaches, the operating rates of silicon enterprises in the south and north are gradually showing a divergent trend of decreasing in the south and increasing in the north. The total supply of silicon metal is expected to gradually decline in November.

Inventory

Social inventory: SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 559,000 mt on October 23, down 3,000 mt WoW. This included 123,000 mt in general social warehouses, up 3,000 mt WoW, and 436,000 mt in delivery social warehouses (including portions not registered as warrants and spot cargo warehouses), down 6,000 mt WoW. Recently, some goods in warehouses in the Xinjiang region continued to be transferred to the Tianjin area, resulting in significant regional inventory changes. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Polysilicon

Price

Over the weekend, N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 50.95-55 yuan/kg, the N-type polysilicon price index was 52.71 yuan/kg, and granular polysilicon was quoted at 50-51 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were temporarily stable over the weekend. As downstream crystal pulling plants had previously built up sufficient raw material inventories, market trading volume was limited. The market holds some expectations for price increases from polysilicon manufacturers by month-end, but subsequent actual developments still need to be monitored.

Production

Polysilicon production in October is estimated to be around 134,000 mt, an increase MoM from September, exceeding previous market expectations. Some top-tier enterprises are expected to implement production cuts in November, and production is anticipated to decline.

Inventory

Recently, polysilicon inventory has been on an upward trend. The procurement pace of crystal pulling plants has slowed, and some manufacturers face relatively high inventory pressure. Subsequently, polysilicon may enter a production cut cycle, which could slightly alleviate inventory pressure.

Module

Price

Last week, domestic module enterprise quotations experienced minor fluctuations. Recently, installation projects in some provinces began to increase slightly, and module trading volume recovered somewhat compared to the previous period. The price decline for distributed modules also eased. However, low-price competition in the domestic distributed segment remains intense. It is expected that as distributed projects decrease subsequently, distributed module prices will continue to fall. On the centralized side, 210 modules, especially those above 700w, remain relatively tight, thus prices are maintained at high levels. The supply of 183 and 210R modules has been affected by enterprise production cuts, and inventory has also decreased slightly. Short-term prices are expected to remain volatile. Currently, distributed Topcon 183, 210R, and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.67 yuan/W, 0.679 yuan/W, and 0.683 yuan/W, respectively, while centralized Topcon 182/183 and 210N high-efficiency modules are quoted at 0.66 yuan/W and 0.68 yuan/W, respectively.

Production

Recently, with module enterprises operating, orders taken by some module manufacturers increased in November, and the originally planned significant production cut plan will be adjusted. The overall production cuts in November are expected to be lower than previously anticipated.

Inventory

In terms of weekly inventory, with the increase in projects and improved low-price module shipments, module inventory maintained a downward trend.

High-Purity Quartz Sand

Price

Currently, the domestic price for inner-layer sand is 58,000-63,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand is 25,000-30,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand is 17,000-21,000 yuan/mt. Last week, domestic high-purity quartz sand prices remained stable. Under the impact of continuous declines, producer resistance strengthened, and recent trading volume was low. Enterprises continue to engage mainly in negotiations, but weak demand suggests that crucible enterprises are expected to retain pricing power going forward, with a clear downward price trend.

Production

Recently, domestic sand enterprises operated at high rates, but some third-tier enterprises have slightly reduced their operating rates.

Inventory

Quartz sand inventory levels rose slightly. Approaching year-end, long-term contracts for imported overseas sand are also being finalized. After finalization, domestic sand trading is expected to increase, and inventory levels are likely to be contained.

PV Glass

Price

3.2mm single-layer coating: The price for 3.2mm single-layer coating PV glass is 19.5-21 yuan/m², remaining stable.

3.2mm double-layer coating: The price for 3.2mm double-layer coating PV glass is 20.5-22 yuan/m², remaining stable.

2.0mm single-layer coating: The price for 2.0mm single-layer coating PV glass is 12.6-13.6 yuan/m². Recent domestic glass trading volume still fell short of expectations, and module enterprises procured cautiously, continuing to drive down prices. By month-end, some post-settlement orders are due for pricing, and the transaction price is expected to fall below 13 yuan/m².

2.0mm double-layer coating: The price for 2.0mm double-layer coating PV glass is 13.6-14.6 yuan/m², showing a decrease.

Production

A new 1,200 mt/day kiln was added in Inner Mongolia, while a 1,300 mt/day kiln underwent cold repair in Hubei, leading to a decline in the overall operating rate.

Inventory

This week, domestic PV glass inventory levels rose, with some glass enterprises' inventories approaching full capacity, and further increases are expected.